TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED ... ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE ... 70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE ... 30 PERCENT ... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER BLAKE
